Market Briefing: U.S Stock Market Outlook-What's Now after Government Shutdown Ended?

Markets enter the week with record highs colliding with volatility. The Dow recently surged past 48,000, but sector rotation, inflation concerns, and delayed government data have left sentiment fragile. The U.S stock market in the week of November 17, 2025 is expected to be moderately bullish but volatile. Nvidia’s earnings and Federal Reserve minutes will be pivotal in shaping direction. Tech results could revive confidence in AI-driven growth, while bond yields and inflation concerns remain key risks. 

1.  Earnings Spotlight:

• Nvidia’s results are the most anticipated event of the week. Analysts believe strong earnings could reignite the AI trade and stabilize sentiment around high-priced tech stocks.
• Broader tech earnings will also be closely watched, as investors reassess whether AI spending is delivering returns. 

2.  Economic Data Releases:

• The government shutdown created a backlog of reports. This week, investors will finally see some of the delayed data, including jobs and inflation figures3.
• Analysts caution that the data may be discounted as outdated, but any signs of weakness in the labor market could weigh on sentiment. 

3.  Federal Reserve Minutes:

• The Fed will release minutes from its October meeting, offering insight into internal debates about rate cuts.
• Current market odds for a December cut have fallen to roughly 50/50, down from near certainty a month ago, which has added uncertainty. 

4.  Market Positioning:

• According to Complete Intelligence, investors are rotating into cyclical and pro‑growth assets as they anticipate a dovish Fed pivot and a weaker dollar.
• Commodities like copper are seen as leading indicators of a rebound in global manufacturing. 

5.  Risks to Watch:

• The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.14% last week, signaling persistent inflation concerns.
• Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 highlights risk aversion in speculative assets.
• Sector rotation continues: healthcare and energy are gaining, while tech remains under pressure.

  Market Projection

• Short-term: Expect volatility with a moderately bullish tilt, especially if Nvidia delivers strong earnings. If not, tech stocks may continue to be under pressure.
• Medium-term: Inflation signals from bond yields and delayed data could cap gains, keeping investors cautious.

In short: expect volatility with upside potential if Nvidia delivers, but keep an eye on bond yields and inflation data, stay disciplined, monitor inflation signals, and treat volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat.